3Q26 and 2026 vehicle deliveries updates; plus recent alternative data metrics on demand

We believe that Tesla's 3Q26 vehicle deliveries are tracking below consensus (at 456K per Visible Alpha) and our prior view, and we lower our forecast to 435K from 490K, based on monthly and/or weekly sales datapoints for key regions (China, the US and Europe), where we think all three regions are tracking slower than previously expected; some regions filled via exports from China (SE Asia, South America, Australia) are showing strength on a yoy basis. Typical 4Q seasonality plus the Model Y L ramp in the US and Europe could help 4Q26 improve qoq, and FSD can be a demand driver;