Two winners, one preference; Avanza (Buy) and Nordnet (Hold)

Two Nordic savings leaders, different routes to growth. We initiate coverage on Avanza (Buy, 16% upside), with our 2026-28 net profit estimates 9% ahead of street (with further upside potential) and Nordnet (Hold, 8% upside). Both benefit from a structurally growing Nordic savings markets, but offer distinct investment propositions. Avanza combines substantial untapped domestic wallet share with above-consensus earnings growth and a valuation that remains below its historical average. Nordnet offers pan-Nordic scale and higher profitability, although we believe the valuation already reflects much of its growth potential. We therefore see greater upside potential in Avanza, with Denmark providing additional growth optionality, while Nordnet's planned German expansion introduces a further opportunity alongside higher execution risk. Avanza - Buy, TP SEK440: we forecast savings capital to grow at c.16% and EPS at c.14% over 2025-28, with 2027 EPS c.10% above consensus;