全球波动率脉搏：宏观震荡，股市持稳

Despite an AI tailwind keeping equities resilient, their correlation to oil and bonds sits at 30-year extremes on increasingly converging macro risk drivers. Since the onset of the Iran conflict around Mar-2026, oil, bonds and equities have increasingly traded as a single macro theme, with average pairwise correlations reaching 30-year highs. The common link is inflation: higher oil prices pressure bonds through higher yields and, at current rate levels, increasingly weigh on equities as well, with the relationship even more pronounced in Europe. Yet despite record correlations, realized outcomes have diverged sharply, with equities rallying, oil remaining volatile and bonds selling off. We think this creates attractive opportunities in cross-asset hybrid structures, particularly as elevated correlations coexist with subdued equity volatility and declining commodity volatility. We recommend buying Dec-26 dual digitals on SPX <95% (ref. 7683.7) and USO <157.13 (ref. 150.0) for 7.94% (12