报告前瞻小米集团2026年三季度业绩，预计智能手机出货量与毛利率表现较佳：Omdia数据显示三季度手机出货3070万台，较我们预期高11%，在ASP升至历史高位、销量具韧性的推动下，手机毛利率有望高于二季度的8.5%。但因AI投入加大、电动车销售网络扩张及新品发布费用上升，电动车业务亏损可能扩大，进而抵消手机端的稳健表现，使经常性盈利低于预期。我们预计三季度电动车交付超过10万台，四季度超过15万台，规模快速提升有望推动四季度亏损明显收窄；公司整体营收预计超过1000亿元人民币。估值采用分部加总法，手机、IoT与互联网服务用剩余收益模型，电动车业务用概率加权DCF。上行风险为新车型订单与海外份额提升，下行风险为电动车竞争加剧及存储成本上涨压制手机毛利率。
We preview Xiaomi's 3Q26 results and expect upbeat smartphone shipments and gross margin. However, the EV loss is likely to increase due to higher AI investment and new product launch costs. As a result, recurring earnings could be lower than our estimates. We expect EV shipments of ~31k in July, ~30k in Aug and ~40k in Sep, putting 3Q26 shipments >100k units; EV shipments reached ~50k in Oct and will further increase in Nov-Dec, putting 4Q26 shipments over 150k units, so the EV loss is highly likely to narrow in 4Q26 thanks to the rapid volume increase. Latest Omdia data suggest Xiaomi shipped 30.7 million smartphone units in 3Q26, 11% higher than our expectation; thanks to rising ASP and resilient volume, smartphone gross margin could be higher than 2Q26's 8.5%. Aggregate revenue is expected to exceed Rmb100bn. Valuation is sum of the parts, with residual income models for smartphone, IoT and internet services and a probability-weighted DCF for the EV business.