Payments and Fintech: Earnings Week 2 Wrap-up — Key Takeaways and Investor Debates

We recap the second week of C3Q26 earnings following results from AFRM, BILL, CHYM, FIS, FISV, FLYW, FOUR, GPN, JKHY, MQ, PAR, PAY, RELY, TOST, UPST, VYX, WU, and XYZ. The space was highly volatile amid several fundamental surprises as well as broader volatility resulting from the fallout from midterm elections. Overall, we are positive on the group, as valuations screen as reasonably cheap, consumer spending is strong, and the group is fairly insulated from the uncertainty around the AI trade in the aftermath of midterm elections. The bank technology space has been under pressure, with stock moves this quarter fairly idiosyncratic: FIS reset 2027 estimates by 20%, while FISV and JKHY outperformed on largely reiterated outlooks. Fintech earnings suggest the consumer remains healthy, with consistent 20-30%+ growth, though UPST flagged weakening credit performance in the low-end consumer. Recent stock performance could suggest legacy Payments/Fintech multiples have bottomed, with the FIS