USA: Core Retail Sales Well Above Expectations; Boosting Q3 GDP Tracking Estimate to +3.0%; Core Import Prices Well Above

Core retail sales increased 1.4% in August, well above expectations (GS +0.6%, median forecast +0.5%). While broadly based, the increase partly reflected a 0.5pp boost from the rebound in the nonstore retailers category, which was depressed in July by an earlier-than-usual Amazon Prime Day. Growth was also strong at electronics and appliance stores (+1.6%) and sporting goods stores (+1.2%). Headline retail sales rose 1.2%, including a 3.1% month-over-month increase in gasoline spending. Based on PCE and CPI details, the three-month annualized pace of real core retail sales growth rose to +4.3% from +1.6% in July. The report was significantly stronger than previous GDP tracking assumptions, and we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.5pp to +3.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Core import prices rose 0.8% in August, well above expectations, and headline import prices increased 0.7%. Import prices for computer peripherals and parts rose 4.9% month-over-month and 48.8% year-over-