花旗研究发布巴西月度通胀报告并更新通胀预测。报告预计2026年末巴西IPCA通胀率为4.8%（同比），高于4.5%的目标上限，但低于市场预期的5.0%（据巴西央行9月4日Focus调查）。报告认为此后通胀将重拾上行动能，尤其自2026年10月起逐步攀升，至12月达到4.8%。对后续读数，预计2026年9月IPCA环比上涨0.50%，10月涨0.40%，11月涨0.30%，12月涨0.45%。2026年8月CPI环比为-0.32%（7月为0.07%），高于花旗预期的-0.38%但低于市场预期的-0.28%；同比涨幅由7月的4.44%回落至4.22%，低于4.5%目标上限但仍高于3.0%目标中值。食品（-0.3%）、住房（-1.9%）和交通（-0.9%）继续对整体通胀形成下行压力；8月核心通胀均值环比0.2%（同比4.3%），潜在服务通胀环比0.4%（同比5.0%）。
Citi Research's Brazil Monthly Inflation Deck updates its inflation forecasts. Citi still expects CPI inflation at 4.8% YoY in 2026YE, above the upper limit of the target (4.5% YoY) and below market consensus (5.0% YoY per BCB Focus Survey of Sept 4). From this point onwards, Citi expects inflation to regain momentum, especially as of Oct-26, gradually climbing until it reaches 4.8% YoY in Dec-26. For the next readings, Citi expects IPCA at 0.50% MoM in Sep-26, 0.40% MoM in Oct-26, 0.30% MoM in Nov-26, and 0.45% MoM in Dec-26. CPI inflation came in at -0.32% MoM in Aug-26 from 0.07% MoM in Jul-26, above Citi's estimate (-0.38% MoM) but below consensus (-0.28% MoM). The year-on-year measure posted 4.22% in Aug-26 from 4.44% in Jul-26, lower than the upper limit of the target (4.5%) but still above midpoint (3.0%). Food, Housing and Transportation continued to impose downside pressure on headline at -0.3%, -1.9% and -0.9% MoM, respectively. Avg. core measures came in at 0.2% MoM in Aug-2