Murata: MLCC Deep Dive - From ceramic to gold and the AI Data Center catalyst (Part 1)

This Bernstein deep-dive focuses on Murata (6981.JP) and the investment opportunity in MLCCs amid the AI data center boom. For years, multi-layered ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) were volume-based commoditized products in consumer electronics; AI data center demand has driven tight supply in high-end and cutting-edge MLCCs, resulting in price hikes and high book-to-bill ratios. As AI data center power grows at a 19% CAGR through 2030E, we expect cutting-edge MLCC demand to grow at a 33% CAGR to USD27.7bn by 2032E. Producing cutting-edge MLCCs requires miniaturization, material and manufacturing specialty, which only Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) can produce effectively at high yields. Capacity is estimated to grow at a 50% CAGR versus demand growth of 30% CAGR through 2031E, so supply tightness will not be resolved for at least the next five years, implying potential further price uplifts. Murata is the key beneficiary: with its lead in miniaturization and ceramic manufactur