Americas Oil: Russia Refinery Tracker (9/21/26)

We provide an update to our previous Russian refinery tracker that we published earlier this quarter, which continues to update. We note news reports of significant drone attacks this weekend on the final day of Russian elections. While the scale of the attack was reported as the largest, we find the damage caused is consistent with previous drone attacks. We combine real-time satellite imaging with AI web-scraping (with a focus on Ukrainian and Russian language sources). Satellite imaging combined with reports corroborate ~2-3 mln bopd of refineries currently on fire and ~4 mln bopd of refineries hit within the past month. That is roughly 2-3% and 4% of global refining - a significant amount (especially when coupled with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz). The lost refining capacity has forced Russia to ban refined product exports for the remainder of the year, tightening the global market and driving up refined product prices and crack spreads. Even putting the Strait of Hormuz to