高盛基于雪佛龙和埃尼9月2日在委内瑞拉的公告，更新其"重点项目"模型：预计委内瑞拉原油产量到2030年达约190万桶油当量/日（较2025年增加94.5万桶/日）、2035年达约230万桶/日，另有NABEP合资公司（获17个油田100年特许权、约650亿桶储量，拟25年投资至多1000亿美元）带来的额外上行空间。石油增量主要来自雪佛龙（目标2031年由28万桶/日升至约60万桶/日，五年计划投入70亿美元）和埃尼（Junin-5地块25年许可，约350亿桶地质储量）；雷普索尔拟于2028年将产量提升两倍，GeoPark目标2038年Bare区块达约9万桶/日。天然气方面，Dragon（壳牌）与Loran（BP/XRG）预计新增约14万桶油当量/日，潜在FID时点为2027-2028年。
On the back of the Chevron and ENI announcements in Venezuela, our updated Top Projects modelling shows Venezuelan crude reaching c.1.9 mboed by 2030 (+945 kboed vs 2025), with additional upside from the North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) JV which was granted 100-year concessions on 17 fields with c.65 bn bbl reserves. Across the majors, Chevron is targeting 600 kboed from 280 kboed today under a $7bn 5-year plan, ENI has secured a 25-year licence over c.35 bn bbl of certified oil in place at Junin-5, Repsol plans to triple oil production by 2028 and GeoPark aims to ramp Bare to c.90 kboed by 2038. On gas, we see c.140 mboed added on Dragon (Shell) and Loran (BP/XRG) with potential FID in 2027E/28E, feeding the existing Trinidad Atlantic LNG plant. On an NPV-at-15% basis, we see the largest value in Venezuelan assets for Chevron ($6.4bn), ENI ($4.8bn) and Repsol ($1.9bn), with potential Dragon/Loran FID derisking further value for Shell ($0.3bn) and BP ($0.1bn). On the economi