Boeing: Working on fundamentals to reach a solid cash trajectory; But, "every night I'm on a flight that never lands"

Boeing's share price has been flat for the last three years, while the S&P500 rose 80%. The company has had to recover from a difficult 2018-23 that included 737MAX accidents, 787 structural nonconformities, certification delays, and large defense charges. The recovery has been led by CEO Kelly Ortberg since August 2024. Since that time, much has come together on key programs in BCA and BDS. But, issues have continued related to labor, certifications, and production processes. We also do not yet have clear visibility on the cash flow outlook. We update our model with changes to pricing (lower on 737 due to compensation costs, higher on 787) and longer delays on delivery ramps, which reduce our 2026 and 2027 delivery estimates. Our BDS growth outlook is higher after the F/A-XX win, although little detail is available on the program. For long-term investors, we continue to believe there is substantial upside. But, that will be hard without stability or more detailed guidance on free cash