China Property Monthly Tracker: Sep ASP inspiring and aggregate sales resilient; yet primary sales and completion miss

Sep ASP decline pace slightly narrowed in the primary market, with T1 cities extending the positive changes; we also notice structural positive signals in secondary ASP whose Sep mom decline mirrored Aug, in terms of expanded T1 cities gains and narrower decrease in lower-tier cities. More cities recorded positive ASP changes in both primary and secondary markets in Sep (17/9 out of 70 cities, vs. 15/3 in Aug), among which 7/4 cities had achieved 2 quarters of positive or flat mom since Mar. Despite encouraging ASP trends, Sep primary sales (vol/val at -21%/-20% yoy) were below our expectations and construction activities remained weak (particularly for completions), mirroring continued sluggish performance in FAI/land markets. Sep secondary sales in 15 cities were in line with GSe at +1% yoy and nationwide online-registered sales volume extended its strong performance at 12% yoy, with secondary listing balance continuing to decline on a yoy basis. Sep/9M26 primary GFA sold and seconda