Asia Semis Pulse: TSMC's A14 faster ramp; MediaTek's new ASICs; silicon capacitors; wafer upcycle

UBS expects TSMC to further accelerate its leading-edge capacity build-out: the new A14 node should start tool move-in at Fab 20 in Baoshan from H2 2026, with expansion at Fab 25 in Central Taiwan Science Park pulled forward to support larger scale in 2028. We estimate TSMC may build 60kwpm A14 capacity by end-2028, above N2's 30-40kwpm installed capacity at the same stage, and we raise TSMC's 2027/28E capex from US$80bn/95bn to US$90bn/105bn. On MediaTek, we are increasingly positive on TPU v9's EMIB-T execution, with improving substrate yield at Ibiden and support from Unimicron and Shinko for >2mn TPU v9 volumes in 2028; MediaTek may also be engaging with new ASIC projects including SpaceX's Dojo 3 and Tesla's AI6, a combined revenue opportunity of up to US$10-15bn. We believe the market still underappreciates MediaTek's strategic value in Google TPU and new ASICs. As AI/HPC packages scale, silicon capacitors (SiCap) emerge as a critical component;