Hong Kong: Hong Kong's First Five Year Plan: Identifying Sources of Structural Growth

The Hong Kong government has unveiled its first Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development (2026–30), setting out medium-term priorities across innovation, the Northern Metropolis, talent development and Hong Kong's traditional strengths in finance, trade and transport. In our view, the plan broadly addresses several key constraints on medium-term growth, including limited land supply, population aging, weak commercialization of innovation, and the need to sustain growth in existing high-value-added service sectors while developing new growth industries. The most visible support to growth over the next few years is likely to come from accelerated land and infrastructure development in the Northern Metropolis and continued talent inflows, while the payoff from innovation and new industrialization will depend more heavily on successful commercialization and the ability to achieve sufficient scale despite Hong Kong's high cost base. Meanwhile, finance, trade and transport remain m