本报告为瑞银全球多资产周度核心信念汇总，覆盖未来一周关键事件与观点变化。报告预计当前高利率环境将持续更久，但收益率将在年底前见顶；维持2年远期2s/10s SOFR曲线陡峭化交易，做空10年期法国国债相对欧盟，建议接收12月瑞士央行会议。外汇方面，预计澳洲联储加息对澳元影响有限，而哥伦比亚央行意外加息将支撑比索；维持看多美元、看空日元立场，年末欧元兑美元目标1.12、美元兑日元165。股市看好欧洲受AI基础设施、国防、电网更新及基建支出驱动的工业产能周期，欧洲工业与矿业股较美国同业更具吸引力，盈利修正最积极的是半导体、资本品和银行。信用债方面，若利率维持高位，再融资风险上升，尤其BBB/CCC、私募信贷和软件，偏好BB级而非B级/CCC级，对科技、通信及低质量信用保持谨慎。经济预测：2026年全球GDP增长3.2%、美国2.2%、中国4.5%、欧元区0.8%；
This 'core conviction' document is our weekly one-page multi-asset rundown where we highlight key events in the week ahead and any view changes. There is a lot of central bank speak this week, including 18 appearances by Fed officials. We expect to be stuck in the current high rates environment for a while longer, but expect yields to peak before year end. We stick with forward SOFR curve steepeners, stay short 10y France vs EU, and would receive the Dec SNB meeting. In FX, we expect limited impact of a possible RBA hike on AUD, but we expect a surprise hike in Colombia which should be COP supportive. Friday's payroll number is the most important data release this week. In equities, we favour European equities exposed to the industrial capacity cycle across AI infrastructure, defence, grid renewal and infrastructure spending. European industrials and miners screen more favorably than US peers, and the cheapest growth is concentrated where earnings revisions are most positive: semis, ca