Lottomatica: No surprises in Q3, guidance unchanged, Cirsa on track for Q2 27

Our Take: Lottomatica delivered an in-line Q3 print this morning (NGR +5%, EBITDA margin down ~85bps y/y), gaining market share across all product segments and brands, though results were dragged by unfavourable sports outcomes in August. Online and Sports volumes continued to grow at DD %, but Sports Franchise NGR was down ~1%, even as handle remained solid (bets +15% y/y, partly aided by FIFA World Cup matches in July). Gaming Franchise continued its ongoing LSD % NGR decline, driven by iGaming cannibalisation as expected. On EBITDA, the customer-friendly payout weighed on the quarter by EUR34m; adjusting for this, margin was actually up 1.7ppts y/y. FY26 EBITDA guidance now tracks toward the low end of the targeted EUR940-980m range on a reported basis; on a normalised payout basis, management remains comfortable with the high end of that range. No material update on the Cirsa deal was provided, though management indicated it is actively working on the upcoming integration, with clo