摩根士丹利分析师对山西省焦煤与动力煤矿进行实地考察，核心结论为：即便计入复产因素，山西省煤炭产量仍可能较2025年水平下降约10%。继5月下旬重大事故后，煤矿（尤其是民营煤矿）生产心态明显转变，普遍计划按核定产能生产，而非像2023年下半年安全检查放松后那样继续超产。例如，某民营煤矿去年生产约1290万吨原煤，未来将按550万吨的产能配额生产，并因此裁减数百名员工。超产检查已细化至单一矿井层面，较此前更严格，四季度复产矿井每月只能按年度配额的十二分之一生产。因监管趋严、新矿审批缓慢（8座新矿仍在审批且均未开工），未来几年山西难有新增产量，小矿逐步枯竭关停或抵消新增产能。山西2025年产量为13.3亿吨，2027年总产量可能较之下降约10%。行业观点为「谨慎」。
We visited coking and thermal coal mines in Shanxi province. Coal production in Shanxi may decline 10% from the 2025 level, even factoring in mine resumptions. The mindset for miners in Shanxi appears to have changed, with low incentive to overproduce even after safety inspections have been relaxed. Unlike after the last round of safety inspections in 2H23, when overproduction continued after safety inspections were relaxed, the mindset for miners, especially for non-SOE coal mines, appears to have become more cautious. All the coal mines we visited noted plans to produce based on approved capacity going forward. For example, a private coal mine we visited produced ~12.9mnt raw coking coal last year, but explicitly mentioned that coal production going forward will be 5.5mnt as per the capacity quota. As a result of the lower volume, the company had released hundreds of employees recently. Local governments are promoting mine resumption, yet miners noted that the 17 rules issued by the