Yamato Holdings (9064): 2Q results: Still see risk of profit guidance undershoot, but even with one, it could be within expected range

2Q operating profit rose by 4 hundred million yen YoY to 3.1 billion yen (JPM estimate 3.2 billion; Bloomberg consensus 4.4 billion; guidance 4.9 billion), missing guidance mainly on volume. Yamato revised down full-year operating profit guidance by 23.0 billion yen but cut the expense outlook by the same amount, leaving operating profit guidance unchanged at 42.0 billion yen (+48.4% YoY; JPM 43.4 billion; consensus 39.9 billion). Maintaining guidance despite a volume undershoot looks positive on the surface, but progress in optimizing operating costs in 3Q, the peak quarter, needs monitoring to judge whether that call was right. 1H operating loss was 1.8 billion yen, with a 2.0 billion yen YoY improvement driven by pricing optimization, indirect cost cuts and operating cost savings, offset by lower volumes, inflation, personnel investment and facility upfront costs. Ta-Q-Bin volume guidance was cut to -1.4% from +0.2% while unit price guidance was raised to +1.8% from +1.5%. The compa