摩根大通维持联合太平洋(UNP)"中性"评级,将2027年12月目标价由322美元微调至321美元,对应2028年EPS的21倍目标市盈率,高于约19.5倍的历史均值。报告指出,公司持续实现显著的生产率提升,年底前服务水平依旧较强,运营团队有效利用富余运力承接近期运量增长;洛杉矶港连创纪录后国际多式联运快速放量,4Q26开局多式联运量同比增长21%,燃油附加费有望部分抵消组合的负面效应。收购诺福克南方(NSC)的监管审查已进入实质审查阶段,反对方材料于11月18日提交,司法部与交通部初步意见于12月3日提交,UP仍将初始申请形容为"圣诞愿望清单",倾向在明确竞争损害处做针对性、基于事实的补救,而不接受广泛且破坏价值的诉求,宁可放弃交易。4Q26最大变量为燃油成本,预计环比上升约15%。
J.P. Morgan maintains a Neutral rating on Union Pacific (UNP) and trims its December 2027 price target to $321 from $322, based on 21x the 2028 EPS estimate versus the ~19.5x historical average. UNP continues to generate significant productivity gains with service levels holding fairly strong into year-end as the operations team deploys excess capacity to handle recent volume growth. International intermodal is ramping quickly after record months at the Port of Los Angeles, with intermodal volumes up 21% to start 4Q26, and fuel surcharges can likely help offset the negative mix shift. Following Board Member Kloster's late-September comments, the merger review of Norfolk Southern has moved to the merits phase: opponents' filings are due November 18, preliminary DOJ/USDOT comments December 3, and applicants' rebuttal February 16. UP remains open to fact-based, targeted remedies where competitive harm is clearly identified (citing the CN settlement) but characterizes the initial filings a