瑞银全球股票策略团队发布战术仪表盘，汇总其仓位与市场风险指标体系。早期预警信号（Early Warning Signal）为机器学习模型，估算标普500未来一个月上涨超5%、下跌超5%或区间震荡三种情景的概率，并以涨超5%与跌超5%的净概率作为总信号，当前读数约为-0.7个标准差，显示下行风险略占上风；历史上信号触及正负1个标准差时，未来一个月平均回报分别为+4%和-3.5%左右。Turbu-lens为衡量未来一个月市场脆弱度的机器学习指标，取值区间-1至+1，数值越高意味着压力越大，其驱动因素涵盖期权、仓位、跨资产与宏观变量。Narrative Radar模型用于识别驱动市场及行业相对收益的关键宏观变量：标普500模型的核心变量包括AI叙事、美债10年期盈亏平衡通胀、美联储政策预期、美国经济活动、俄乌局势、盈利预测修正、动量、2-10年期限利差、中国重启及10年期实际利率；
UBS Global Equity Strategy publishes its Tactical Dashboard, aggregating positioning and market risk indicators. The Early Warning Signal is a machine learning model estimating the probabilities that the S&P 500 will rise more than 5%, fall more than 5%, or trade in between over the next month; the aggregate signal is the net probability of a greater-than-5% rally versus a greater-than-5% decline and currently stands at roughly -0.7 standard deviation, pointing to a modest downside skew. Historically, when the signal has reached +/-1 standard deviation, one-month forward returns have averaged +4% and about -3.5%, respectively. Turbu-lens is a machine learning gauge of market vulnerability over the next month, outputting a signal between -1 and +1 where higher values imply greater potential stress, aggregating drivers of equity volatility across options, positioning, cross-asset channels and macro indicators. The Narrative Radar identifies the macro variables most important for market a