China: Growth of both exports and imports rose strongly in September

Exports in USD terms grew by 36.3% y-o-y in September (Consensus: 25.7%; Nomura: 27.7%), notably above market expectations and up from 25.0% in August. Import growth also rose to a higher-than-expected 31.0% in September from 28.2% in August. As a result, the trade surplus widened further to USD133.5bn in September to mark the highest monthly reading on record. Semiconductors and autos remain the largest drivers, but we see some new drivers, such as refined oil products and certain labour-intensive products. The contraction of crude oil imports narrowed slightly in September, despite the continued rebound in crude prices, which suggests Beijing may have run out of room to keep cutting crude purchases significantly. We expect both export and import growth to remain highly elevated into Q4.