2026年9月中国出口动能显著增强，增速升至七个月以来最高，贸易顺差扩大至创纪录的1335亿美元。AI需求仍是关键驱动，集成电路（IC）和个人电脑（PC）出口激增约贡献13个百分点的出口增长。但花旗认为这一强劲势头难以持续，预计明年出口引擎将降温：花旗预计全球AI资本开支增速将从2026年预测的106%放缓至2027年预测的56%，从而冷却中国AI相关出口；与此同时，偏高的利率与能源不确定性可能拖累非AI贸易。此外，美中贸易休战显得脆弱，明年领导人层面的接触可能减少，而悬而未决的欧中贸易失衡仍是关键的外部政策风险。9月中国对欧盟贸易顺差进一步扩大至348亿美元，中欧混合动力汽车协议仅为短期妥协。
China's export engine strengthened markedly in September 2026, with growth reaching a seven-month high and the trade surplus widening to a record US$133.5bn. AI demand remained the key driver, as surging IC and PC shipments contributed around 13ppt to export growth. However, this strong momentum is unlikely to be sustained, and we expect the export engine to cool down next year. Citi expects global AI capex growth to moderate from 106% in 2026E to 56% in 2027E, cooling China's AI exports, while elevated rates and energy uncertainty could weigh on non-AI trade. The US-China trade truce appears fragile and leader-level engagement could become less frequent next year, and unresolved EU-China trade imbalances remain a key external policy risk. The trade imbalance with the EU expanded further in September, with the trade surplus growing to US$34.8bn, and the China-EU hybrid vehicle agreement offers only a near-term compromise.