The Digital Infrastructure Era: Initiating our ANZ Data Centre Supply-Demand model

Introducing our ANZ Data Centre Supply-Demand model: We project ANZ demand to scale from 1.6GW today to 5.2GW by 2030E (26% CAGR) in our base case, and up to 7.0GW in our bull case (34% CAGR). Demand is constructed in two layers: Layer 1 captures everything running on general-purpose racks; layer two is accelerator load - ANZ's share of global token usage, adjusted for an efficiency curve as well as training. This materially outpaces supply, which we project grows from 1.6GW to 4.5GW by 2030E, creating a 0.7GW shortfall. We expect ~A$50-65bn of capex is required to fund supply/demand, excluding IT equipment;