Republic Services (RSG.N)：三季度业绩强劲，2027年前景令人鼓舞，重申买入

We're updating estimates to reflect 3Q results and raised '26 guidance. Environmental Solutions drove the beat and the majority of the raise following a long-awaited earnings inflection: ES revenue jumped +22% (+$96mm) to $529mm with +13% from emergency response jobs and +9% from underlying growth across business lines; EBITDA surged +$46mm Y/Y to $134mm, implying margins +500bps to 25.3%. Management updated guidance to reflect incremental $50mm revenue and $15mm EBITDA from ES, most of which was realized in 3Q. Waste & Recycling was a touch light vs. our model due to $25mm incremental healthcare costs from above-average claims activity; costs have normalized in October. Yield on related revenue (+3.5%) was roughly in line (Citi est. +3.7%); 3Q yield net of volume (+2.8%) is comparable to WM (+2.9%) and WCN (+3.1%). With updated estimates and a multiple of 31x FCFPS, our target rises to $281;