Q3 preview: HOOD, COIN, CRCL, FIGR - New product growth in focus

Crypto and blockchain-linked equities remain a transition story with platforms moving from native crypto towards tokenized real-world products. For brokers/exchanges (HOOD/COIN), the growth case has evolved to prediction markets and upcoming products such as tokenized assets and perpetual futures. Q3 was an improving quarter for crypto with Bitcoin recovering from the lows, though recent rate jitters have hit sentiment again; stablecoin competitive intensity remains the key controversy for Circle. Bernstein expects HOOD Q3 2026 revenue of ~$1.5Bn (+13% QoQ), adjusted EBITDA of ~$819Mn and EPS of ~$0.60, driven by record equity notional volumes of ~$990Bn, options volumes of ~900Mn contracts, event contract volumes of ~16.4Bn (+21% QoQ) and crypto volumes recovering to ~$50Bn. It expects COIN revenue of ~$1.3Bn (+4% QoQ) and adjusted EBITDA of ~$222Mn, and cuts 2026/27/28E revenue by 32%/31%/28% on soft native crypto volumes, lowering the PT to $250 from $330. CRCL revenue is expected a