中国船舶 (600150.SH): China CSSC Holdings - A: NDR meeting takeaways: More Middle East LNG carrier opportunities, margins and deliveries skew to upside

We hosted China CSSC Holdings (CSSC) management for an NDR lunch on 16 September. Key takeaways: (1) management is discussing additional LNG carrier projects with Middle Eastern customers beyond its existing ADNOC orders, while the tanker replacement cycle remains strong and dry bulk is only beginning to recover; (2) management expects gross margins to improve in 2H26 and 2027 as higher-priced 2023–2024 orders enter delivery, creating upside risk to our forecasts; and (3) larger gantry cranes, dock extensions and tandem construction could accelerate vessel completion and reopen earlier delivery slots. Our 2H26E GPM already rises to 18.1% from 17.0% in 1H26. CSSC is raising effective capacity through larger gantry cranes (Jiangnan 1,600t, Waigaoqiao ~2,200t, GSI 900t/600t/400t), dock extensions and tandem construction rather than greenfield yards;