Worth A (Hot) Shot; Resume Coverage w/ Buy

We resume coverage of Spectrum Brands (SPB) with a Buy rating and a $97 price target, implying ~26% upside. In our view, investors remain focused on near-term consumer and cost headwinds while overlooking the company's improving earnings power. While FY27 is likely to remain a transition year, we see a path to organic sales growth and EBITDA that exceeds current expectations as category conditions normalize and management initiatives gain traction. With shares trading at a ~30% discount to their 2- and 3-year average valuation multiples, we see scope for a re-rating as earnings visibility improves. We forecast FY27/FY28 organic sales growth of +0.7%/+2.4%, with FY28 above Street expectations of +1.8%, and adjusted EBITDA of $319M/$335M. Our NTM price target of $97 is based on ~7.5x EV/EBITDA, framing a $112 upside scenario and a $67 downside scenario, a favorable skew.