European Technology Hardware — Postcard from the US: Less Macro, More Micro. Less Beta, More Alpha

After a week in the US and Canada, investor sentiment appears noticeably weaker than three to six months ago, particularly across memory and semiconductor equipment. The key issue is not deteriorating fundamentals, but rather the lack of meaningful upside relative to increasingly demanding expectations. Many discussions focused on 2028-29 AI scenarios and the sustainability of long-term demand growth, with a growing number of investors believing AI is approaching a period of peak growth, contributing to the recent de-rating across the sector. Against this backdrop, investors are becoming increasingly selective and stock-picking is once again taking precedence over broad sector exposure. Semiconductor equipment: positioning remains broadly neutral amid limited near-term catalysts. Many investors argue buy-side expectations already embed a $275-300bn WFE market by 2028, which UBS disagrees with. A $275-300bn WFE outcome would imply ASML EPS of c.€85-100 in 2028E, only 17x-19x P/E versus