摩根士丹利对北美科技行业首席信息官（CIO）开展2026年三季度调查。结果显示，2026年IT预算增长预期有所改善，长期支出信心增强，支撑起更健康的预算基础；但近期预算上修预期转弱，2027年增长展望大体平稳，人工智能仍是首要优先事项，不过更广泛的IT支出拐点尚未到来。分领域看，软件仍是科技板块中增长最快的行业，其后依次为通信、服务和硬件。AI/机器学习继续保持CIO头号优先事项地位，并成为最具防御性的支出类别；CIO更倾向于从应用软件/SaaS、原生AI或大模型供应商采购AI能力，而非自建。基于上述调查，摩根士丹利对软件行业给出"吸引"评级。
2026 IT budget growth expectations improve, with stronger long-term confidence supporting a healthier backdrop. However, near-term revision expectations soften and 2027 growth looks broadly stable. AI remains a priority, but we are still waiting for a broader IT spending inflection. Our latest CIO Survey, fielded between August 6th and September 8th, points to continued improvement in the spending backdrop, with CIOs expecting IT budget growth improving sequentially in 2026. The first look at 2027 suggests broadly stable growth, modestly below the 2010–2019 average and suggesting a healthier budget base rather than a material acceleration ahead. Software remains the fastest-growing industry in the Technology sector, followed by Communications, Services, and Hardware. On near-term IT budget revisions, the 1-year up-to-down ratio declined, with fewer CIOs expecting upward revisions and fewer expecting downward revisions than previously. Long-term spending expectations improve, with the 3