Margin Pressure Decomposition Exercise: Shipping Subsidies and Credit Card as Main Drivers

In this note, we attempt an exercise of trying to decompose MELI's 2Q26 EBIT margin pressure of -5.5pp y/y into the key components listed in the 4Q25 release, namely shipping subsidies, credit card expansion, 1P and cross border trade (CBT). Our estimates suggest that the bulk of the pressure (-3.8pp) came from shipping subsidies, followed by credit card expansion (-0.9pp) and 1P (-0.4pp), and then by other factors (-0.3pp), which likely includes the net effects of CBT but also gains such as advertising expansion. We remain Neutral on MELI, given a tough competitive environment, which we believe explains the main pressure points. Shipping subsidies alone were 70% of the margin decline, or -3.8pp of margin pressure. We estimate this by incorporating 2Q25 take rate ex-ads of 18.5% and total shipping costs of 11.2% of GMV into 2Q26 figures, instead of the actual 18.1% and 12.8%. Credit Card expansion represents another -0.9pp of margin pressure. Our calculation assumes no growth in credit