本报告为摩根大通亚洲太平洋地区股票研究电话会议材料，主题为铁矿石价格展望及其对日本综合商社铁矿石业务盈利的影响。报告预计铁矿石现货价格将从FY2026的约98美元/吨回落至FY2027、FY2028的95美元/吨左右。报告梳理了伊藤忠商事、丸红、三井物产、住友商事、三菱商事五大商社的铁矿石业务净利润、持股资产（如Roy Hill、Robe River、Mt. Newman、IOC等）及铁矿石、煤炭、铜、油气产量数据。投资观点方面，摩根大通已于2026年9月3日将商社板块评级由中性上调至看多，预计七大商社FY2026合计净利润同比增长27%至5.278万亿日元，加权平均ROE升至13.6%；个股方面首推住友商事（增持），维持丰田通商为增持，将伊藤忠商事和双日上调至增持，维持三菱商事、丸红为中性，并将三井物产下调至中性。
This J.P. Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research joint call presentation presents the iron ore price outlook and its impact on Japanese trading companies' iron ore earnings. J.P. Morgan forecasts the iron ore spot price to ease from about US$98/t in FY2026 to around US$95/t in FY2027 and FY2028. The deck reviews the iron ore business net profits, assets (e.g., Roy Hill, Robe River, Mt. Newman, IOC) and iron ore, coal, copper and oil & gas production volumes of ITOCHU, Marubeni, Mitsui & Co., Sumitomo and Mitsubishi. The firm raised its trading company sector stance to bullish from neutral on September 3, 2026, forecasting combined net profit of the seven covered trading companies to grow 27% YoY to ¥5,278 billion in FY2026 with weighted-average ROE rising to 13.6%. Sumitomo remains the top pick (OW), Toyota Tsusho stays OW, Itochu and Sojitz are upgraded to OW, Mitsubishi and Marubeni remain Neutral, and Mitsui & Co. is downgraded to Neutral.