Copper Dashboard: Global exchange inventories fall as US located stocks keep rising, tariff noise remains the key price driver; remain positive on larger copper miners

Key takeaways: (1) Global visible copper inventories have fallen to 1.04Mt from 1.37Mt in March driven by lower SHFE + China bonded warehouse stocks (down ~410kt to ~90kt); US located LME and COMEX inventory has continued to rise on tariff front-running (now at ~810kt or ~80% of the global total). Interestingly, the COMEX to LME premium has now disappeared, which could see a pause in metal flowing to the US. Ex-US-based inventories have continued to decline and look relatively tight. (2) Global copper production is down 1.1% YTD but global demand also remains lackluster; modest China demand growth has been offset by lower RoW growth. (3) High-frequency indicators appear positive with China cathode premia strong and LME canceled warrants remaining elevated;