Apple, Inc. (AAPL.O): An Exciting Roadmap, But Tactically Full Valuation

Apple's product roadmap remains amongst the most exciting in over a decade, but our earnings outlook changes little following the iPhone launch, leaving limited upside to our price target after a strong six-month run. We lower our PT modestly to $355 (from $360) as our CY27 EPS falls from $10.30 to $10.15, and continue to forecast ~$10 of EPS in FY27 and close to $11 in FY28, roughly 0-3% above Street. Lower-than-expected new iPhone model pricing modestly pressures our iPhone ASP and gross margin assumptions, but this is largely offset by better iPhone unit expectations, continued Mac upside, and modest Services upside. We now model ~2% iPhone unit growth in FY27-FY28, with Mac the hardware bright spot, iPad softening, and Wearables broadly stable, while Services gets a modest boost from recent pricing actions. Risks include elevated DRAM/NAND costs (memory cost per iPhone up nearly 200% Y/Y) and the rise of third-party Agentic AI platforms that could disrupt App Store and Search econo