本期全球宏观周报以「分裂的国家」为主题。全球层面：备受关注的特朗普-习近平峰会正在进行，美国仍面临伊朗战争、汽油涨价、通胀高企与中期选举前加息等多重压力；中国凭借对关键矿产尤其稀土等咽喉环节的影响力保持筹码，美国则在先进芯片上占优。据悉贸易休战将延长两个月，虽低于此前预期，但足以将现状延续至明年。市场方面，油价走高与超预期强劲的PMI令美债大幅抛售逾10bp，市场目前定价10月加息概率约60%、12月约80%；美银预计美联储10月与12月加息后按兵不动，但市场已定价近四次额外加息。美国：预计9月非农仅新增6万（私营5万），低于市场预期，但主要源于8月异常有利季节因子的回吐，潜在就业增长仍达10万以上；失业率预计维持4.1%，有升至4.2%的风险。
Global Letter: Divided Nations. The long-awaited Trump-Xi summit is ongoing, in a context where the US keeps having many open fronts including the Iran war, higher gas prices, higher inflation, and higher rates ahead of the midterm elections. China continues to have leverage given its influence on chokepoints, most notably rare earths, while the US has the upper hand on advanced chips. A two-month extension of the trade truce is reportedly confirmed, somewhat less than expected but enough to extend the status quo into next year. In markets, US rates kept selling off amid higher oil prices and a surprisingly hot PMI print; the market is now pricing a c60% probability of a hike in October and c80% in December. We continue to expect those hikes to take place, with the Fed holding after that. Outside the US, we revised our European forecasts. We now expect more persistent inflation, and another ECB hike in December, with weaker growth in 2027;