本期《亚洲经济周报》聚焦日本资本开支繁荣的代价，并回顾亚洲货币政策与数据前瞻。日本企业资本开支计划依然强劲、名义支出大体跟进，但价格上涨吸收了大部分实体投资增量，名义资本开支与实体投资日益背离，意味着日本资本存量增速低于支出数据所显示的水平；且投资需求中进口占比上升，拖累日本对外账户并对日元构成边际压力。测算显示，常规机械最终需求的32.7%来自进口（直接20.7%、经进口投入12.0%），含电气及ICT的广义机械升至44.4%；2022年一季度至2026年二季度，以日元计的机械进口价格上涨约42%，按合同货币计仅18%。建筑成本主要受国内约束，东京钢结构建筑成本较2022年一季度上涨24%-28%，结构施工岗位求人倍率2026年7月达7.94倍，建设订单积压由疫情前约14个月升至20个月。日本央行加息25bp至1.25%，预计后续按季加息至终端2%；印尼央行维持政策利率5.75%；
This week's Asia Economic Weekly focuses on the price of Japan's capex boom, alongside Asia's monetary policy outlook and data preview. Japanese corporates' capex plans remain strong and nominal spending has largely followed, but higher prices have absorbed much of the increase in physical investment spending. The growing divergence between strong nominal capex and weak real investment implies Japan's capital stock is growing more slowly than headline spending figures imply. Moreover, a growing share of investment demand is met through imports, weighing on Japan's external accounts and acting as a marginal headwind for the yen. Our analysis shows 32.7% of final demand for conventional machinery accrues to imports (20.7% directly and 12.0% through imported inputs), rising to 44.4% for broad machinery including electrical & ICT. Between 1Q CY22 and 2Q CY26, yen-based import prices for machinery rose around 42%, versus 18% on a contract-currency basis. Construction faces domestic cost and