超级粘合剂

We have written before that there is one superglue holding the market together this year: growth. There is simply no other way of explaining the huge rise in yields (almost exclusively driven by neutral rates), equities close to record highs, credit at their tights and cross-asset volatility so subdued. In this piece we provide context into what we think is driving this growth resilience: an unprecedented global capex cycle underpinned not only by AI but a government-financed buildout of strategic autonomy across multiple industries. We offer a few stylized observations on the history of capex booms, as well as the current one: CapEx booms are rare events; they tend to be sustained, multi-year events;