巴克莱《ETF指南》（ETF Compass）全球股票衍生品策略周报指出，风险正从关税转向利率。隐含波动率最便宜的品种是中墨贸易战受害者（中国与墨西哥相关ETF），显示在地缘政治紧张与利率担忧升温下，关税风险已淡出投资者视野；久期类ETF（LQD、TLT、IEF）继续主导高波动率榜单，但利率ETF波动率仅略高于长期均值。近期2年/30年美债曲线41个基点的再陡峭化已回吐此前约65%的平坦化，为1992年以来第二大幅度反转（仅次于2022年4月）。资金流方面，SOXX（半导体）遭遇两年最差双周流出，流失约30亿美元（占资产6.7%）；XLU（公用事业）录得最佳流入（约20亿美元，8.2%）。尾部对冲筛选显示，按当前成本，XLF（金融）、IYR（房地产）与HYG（美国高收益债）的短期看跌期权对全球股票历史两个月回撤最具性价比。数据截至2026年10月6日。
Barclays ETF Compass - Global Equity Derivatives Strategy. The cheapest vol is found in trade-war casualties such as China and Mexico ETFs, highlighting how tariff risks have fallen off investors' radar amid geopolitical tensions and higher-rate concerns. Duration ETFs continue to dominate the rich-vol screen, although rates ETF vol remains only modestly above long-term averages. The recent 41bp 2y30y re-steepening has retraced ~65% of the prior flattening, the second-largest such reversal since 1992 after Apr-22, occurring amid rising yields and highlighting the challenge of pricing the Fed's reaction function. SOXX (Semis) saw its worst 2-week outflows in 2 years, losing $3bn (6.7% of assets), while XLU (Utilities) saw its best inflows ($2bn, 8.2%). At current costs, short-dated puts on XLF (Fins), IYR (Real Estate) and HYG (US HY credit) would have offered the best value for historical 2-month drawdowns in global equities. Data as of 6-Oct-2026.