美国CPU厂商3Q26业绩电话会要点：对覆盖公司的影响

Following the key US CPU vendor's (Intel) 3Q26 earnings call, Morgan Stanley updates its view on Greater China technology hardware coverage. Negative for PC OEMs and ODMs: Intel expects 2H26 PC units to fall 20%+ y/y as OEMs aggressively cut inventories amid weaker sell-through, with the correction accelerating over the past two months, broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's ~25% y/y decline estimate; this is more bearish for lower-end consumer-focused OEMs/ODMs such as Acer and Compal. Positive for server OEMs and ODMs: Intel guides server CPU unit growth of 30%+ in both 2026 and 2027, with upside if wafer/substrate supply improves, and sees server CPU TAM rising from US$40bn today to >US$200bn in five years, driven mainly by AI agents — positive for Wiwynn, Lenovo and Lotes. For ABF substrates, most of the previously discussed ~40% capacity increase is due in 2H27;