本报告回顾2026年第二季度亚洲（除日本）盈利情况并展望第三季度。2026年第二季度盈利超预期与不及预期之比为+6%（52%超预期对46%不及预期），较去年同期的-8%显著改善；滚动12个月口径为-6%。分市场看，台湾表现最佳（超预期比不及预期多65%），韩国中性，菲律宾和马来西亚较差；分行业看，金融与信息技术表现最好，房地产与消费最差。市场对盈利事件反应普遍平淡，但正负面事件命中率仍分别达到56%和58%，主动收益影响可忽略。展望第三季度，能源、科技与金融因盈利预期上调较强而被看好，台湾和泰国市场最为乐观，公用事业与必需消费偏负面；科技持续拉动亚洲除日本盈利增长预期。报告将盈利惊喜预测与行业分析师基本面观点叠加，筛选出值得关注的买入/卖出评级个股盈利催化事件。
2026Q2 earnings season ended with 6% more positive than negative surprises (52% beats vs 46% misses), a major improvement from last year's -8%; on a rolling 12-month basis the ratio improves to -6% from last year's -13%. Most positive surprises occurred in Taiwan, which had 65% more beats than misses, while Korea was relatively neutral and the Philippines and Malaysia did poorly. At sector level, Tech and Financials were the most positive and saw improvements in earnings revision, whereas Real Estate and Consumer performed worst. Market reaction to earnings events was rather muted, though hit rates remained above 50% (56% for positive and 58% for negative events) with negligible active return impact on average. For 2026Q3, Energy, Tech and Financials are predicted to do well given strong earnings revision relative to the rest of the region, with Taiwan and Thailand most positive and Utilities and Consumer Staples negative. Tech continues to boost earnings growth forecasts for Asia ex-J