Lam Research Corp (LRCX.O): The big GAA winner

Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight on Lam Research (LRCX.O) and raises its price target from $367 to $385, implying 27x CY28 non-GAAP EPS of $14.26, a 25% premium to the average since 2020. We expect a solid DecQ beat, with MSe at $9.0bn versus Street at $8.5bn, and risk skewed to the upside. LAM gained approximately 300bp of logic share in 2025 and is on track to gain another ~80bp in 2026; its estimated 2026 logic share of 11.8% is now approaching its overall WFE share of 12.3%. We estimate LAM has gained roughly 200bp of share from 3nm to 2nm, with WFE per wafer at 2nm up about 50% versus 3nm. As the big GAA winner, LAM should benefit from strengthening NAND and non-China foundry logic. We raise our CY27 forecast from $39.6bn/$11.26 to $40.5bn/$11.58, with system shipment growth of 50% in CY26 and 47% in CY27.