摩根士丹利提出并定义新资产类别——亚太固定收益(APAC Fixed Income)。报告指出,2023年初美联储快速加息使美国政策利率高于亚洲后,传统亚洲固定收益(亚洲美元信用债与亚洲新兴市场本币利率)持续承压:亚洲美元信用债连续多年净供给为负、估值偏贵、资金流出,亚洲信用基金AUM较2021年峰值下降62%。但问题不在区域基本面,而在资产类别边界:亚太宏观仍受稳健名义GDP增长、可控通胀与资本开支超级周期支撑。新资产类别在传统基础上纳入可转债(CBs)与亚洲本币公司信用债,并加入日本、澳大利亚两个发达市场,形成亚太本币利率、可转债、美元信用债、本币公司信用债四类资产,覆盖权益、汇率、信用、行业、久期与经济等风险,可在Goldilocks、扩张、衰退、滞胀四种情景下互补表现。
We define a new asset class, APAC Fixed Income, to address specific issues in regional performance. Asia fixed income (Asia USD credit and EM Asia local-currency rates) has faced increasing pressure since early 2023, as the Fed's rapid hiking cycle pushed US policy rates above those across much of Asia; Asia USD credit has not recorded a year of positive net supply since 2022 and Asia credit fund AUM has declined 62% from its 2021 peak. The problem is not the region - APAC's macro backdrop remains supportive, underpinned by robust nominal GDP growth, manageable inflation, and a capex super cycle - but the boundaries of the asset class. We propose APAC fixed income, which expands the universe across both asset classes and markets: while traditional Asia fixed income comprises Asia USD credit and LC rates across emerging Asian markets, APAC fixed income also includes convertible bonds and LC corp credit, while adding developed-market exposure through Japan and Australia. The four asset c