Permian Resources Corp 3Q26 Earnings Preview: Game On; Expecting an Upside Operational and Financial Print

J.P. Morgan previews Permian Resources' (PR) 3Q26 results, expecting an upbeat quarterly update on solid field execution. We estimate oil production of 204.3 MBo/d, slightly above the Street estimate of 202.0 MBo/d, and total production of 437.8 MBoe/d versus the Street at 428 MBoe/d. We forecast CFPS and EBITDAX of $1.51 and $1,359 MM, versus the Street at $1.45 and $1,294 MM. Our capex estimate of $497 MM is slightly above the Street at $482 MM. Given improved Waha gas prices, we estimate gas price realization will improve QoQ to $0.97 per Mcf. We estimate full-year oil production of 200.3 MBo/d driven by $1.98bn of capex, and expect FCF of $3,029 MM (~16% FCF yield) at recent strip. We reiterate our Overweight rating and establish a Dec-27 price target of $31 (vs. prior Dec-26 PT of $28).