华泰证券策略周报认为，国庆假期前A股缩量震荡，结构上高低位切换延续，创新药、地产、银行占优，通信与半导体仍在消化拥挤度；假期内外部增量信息整体偏正面——国内9月制造业PMI回升至50.1%重返扩张区间，首套房贷利息财政贴息落地，强化四季度"稳增长+再通胀"预期，假期消费总量平稳但量价分化；海外9月非农大幅不及预期，市场对加息预期显著降温，CME FedWatch显示10月加息概率由逾70%降至约20%，纳斯达克100创历史新高。统计2005年以来日历效应显示，节后一周A股平均上涨0.44%、胜率71.4%，小盘与成长占优，科技、医药及地产后周期弹性更大；节前跌幅越充分、节后反弹越明显。但油价高位下全球利率上行（10年期美债收益率一度突破5.3%，创2002年以来新高）仍是分母端核心约束。
The A-share market continued to fluctuate with shrinking turnover in the week before the National Day holiday. Structurally, the rotation from high to low valuations continued. Innovative drugs, property, and banks outperformed, while telecommunications and semiconductors were still digesting crowdedness. Incremental information during the holiday was largely positive. On the domestic front, the manufacturing PMI for September returned to the expansionary zone. Holiday consumption data showed stable aggregate but structural divergence, and fiscal interest subsidies for first-home mortgages were implemented on the policy front. Overseas, weak non-farm payrolls led to rising equities and stagnant bonds. CME FedWatch indicated that the probability of an October rate hike fell from over 70% to around 20%, and the Nasdaq 100 hit a fresh high. Considering the calendar effect after the long holiday, A-shares have already undergone a marked correction before the holiday while earnings forecast