Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG.O): Playing Around with Penetration Maths...The Road to 4 Million US Procedures

While ISRG shares have regained much of the losses recorded post the 2Q26 print, our conversations with investors on the name still skew cautious. In this note, we provide a bottom-up approach to robotic penetration across 17 of the most common DV procedures and projections of where adoption can go for each, paired with a review of robotic training in US residency programs. We came away with three key findings: (1) We are earlier on in the robotics adoption curve than the market appreciates — on a volume-adjusted basis, penetration among the 17 target procedures is ~39%; (2) Only ~20% of the active US physician pool received primarily robotic training in residency, and by 2040 only a little more than 50% will have received robust robotic training;