Bangchak Corporation Public Company (BCP.BK): Another Beat; 2027 Consensus EPS Upgrades Likely

The stock is pricing in mid-cycle refinery margins of ~US$7/bbl versus our GRM estimate of ~US$15/bbl. We remain constructive on Thai refiners despite recent crack volatility amid higher Chinese fuel exports and elevated, albeit easing, freight rates. Thailand’s policy interventions have a limited net impact on margins, while tight product markets, limited new capacity and energy-security priorities should support a higher-normal refining environment into 2027. Core earnings of Bt14.5bn again beat our bullish estimates, despite lower refinery utilisation, diesel discounts and higher crude-sourcing costs. BCP generated OCF of US$582mn driven by strong refining earnings and lower working capital. Core refinery margin at US$17.4/bbl, ~3x mid-cycle; utilization fell to 89% on a planned 28-day Sriracha shutdown. Fuel volumes fell 4% YoY, with gasoline/diesel down 3%; marketing margin fell to US$3.8/bbl from US$6.1/bbl in 2Q26 amid price competition and promotions. The Sustainable Aviation f