China Property: Monthly Tracker: September Mixed; We Expect New Homes to Remain Subdued in 4Q

Home sales picked up slightly in September amid milder home price declines. We think recent policies will reinforce the K-shaped trend between new and existing homes, weighing on developers' sales and earnings outlook in the medium term. We remain cautious on pure-play developers: we expect near-term share-price volatility to remain elevated, with 4Q a key test of the sales response to recent policies, and a weaker-than-expected recovery could weigh on developer stocks. We stay selective, favoring alpha plays with solid mall rental income backed by credible self-help initiatives: CR Land (1109.HK), CR Mixc (1209.HK) and Seazen A/H (601155.SS/1030.HK). CREIS 65-city primary registered sales volume declined 2% y-y in September (vs. -5% in August), while 33-city secondary registered sales volume rose 9% y-y (vs. +2% in August), bringing YTD sales to -12% y-y for primary and +3% y-y for secondary. NBS 70-city new home prices fell 3.0% y-y and 0.1% m-m, while secondary prices fell 4.8% y-y