高盛将2026年底金价预测下调至4150美元/盎司、2027年底下调至4800美元（原为5400美元），原因是美联储近月转鹰压制投资者仓位，但仍维持长期看多，因央行结构性购金强劲——2026至2027年月均约60吨，远高于2022年前17吨。基准情形假设12月加息使「债务货币化担忧」受控，宏观对冲需求（看涨期权）回归历史均值而非年初高位；当前格局类似2022年：央行提供坚实结构性买盘，高利率却压制仓位，金价上行因此放缓。2027年下半年起降息将解除利率约束，私人需求有望与央行购金共振；西方财政可持续性担忧、军费上升及能源进口国债务压力或重燃对冲需求，构成4800美元以上的上行空间。不同期限机会分化：未来3至6个月，CTA与宏观对冲基金仍难维持多头，油价上涨与股市回撤可能触发系统性抛售和追加保证金；长线投资者则可将本轮回调视为更佳入场点。
Goldman Sachs lowers its end-2026 gold forecast to 4150 dollars per ounce and its end-2027 forecast to 4800 dollars (from 5400), reflecting the implications of the Fed's hawkish shift for positioning, while retaining a longer-term constructive view on structurally strong central bank demand of about 60 tonnes per month through 2026-27 versus 17 tonnes pre-2022. The base case assumes the December 2026 hike keeps debasement concerns contained, so macro-policy hedge demand in call options normalizes toward its historical average rather than returning to earlier elevated levels; the setup increasingly resembles 2022, with central banks providing a strong structural bid but higher rates weighing on investor positioning and slowing the pace of gains. Further price support comes once the Fed starts easing in 2027H2 through early 2028, removing the rate constraint and allowing private demand to compete with central bank buying; perceived fiscal sustainability concerns in Western economies, hig