菲利普莫里斯国际（PM.US）：国际IQOS业务基础势头稳健，2027财年前景向好

Maintain OW: We maintain our OW rating on PM following mixed 3Q results. While 3Q Adjusted EPS of $2.36 were ahead of the $2.30 consensus, composition was lower quality, with upside driven by Combustibles, and International Smoke Free revenue missing by ~5%. PM now expects FY26 revenue at the middle to upper half of its +5-7% range with better-than-expected Combustibles volumes and a 4Q reacceleration in International Smoke Free, but expects organic OI and EPS to be at the middle to lower half of its range due to higher costs from geopolitical tensions and the previously announced step-up in US investments. PM's underlying smoke-free momentum remains strong, with 10/11% 3Q/YTD International IQOS in-market sales volume growth ex Japan and Poland. Post 3Q, we are lowering FY26/27/28 EPS by -1%/-2%/-3% to reflect incremental cost pressure, disruption in Ukraine, and reinvestment in US Zyn, but maintain our $215 PT as we roll our valuation forward to FY28. We expect solid on-algorithm grow