Marvell Technology Group: Analyst Day Preview; Fundamentals Strong, Expectations Elevated

At its first Analyst Day in five years, we expect MRVL to potentially lay a path to ~$40-45B in revenue and mid to high teens in EPS by C2030, assuming gross margins can remain in the mid 50% range. The custom silicon business remains the growth driver with the biggest upside and this would assume it could potentially be a ~$20B business by that timeframe - very doable in our view given MRVL's XPU attach engagements. Near-term, fundamentals continue to improve with our latest round of checks pointing to upside at MSFT, very strong growth in 800G/1.6T optical, and new XPU attach programs - especially Google. In our latest UBS Global team CoWoS model, we now expect MSFT Maia 300 program to reach ~350K units in C2027 - we think carrying ~$3.5-4K/chip ASP for MRVL given the consigned HBM. With respect to XPU attach, the latest industry events clearly suggest compute increasingly moving in-network - placing higher value on NICs/SuperNICs/Switches where we think MRVL has differentiated offer