Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX): AMKD Deep Dive + Doc Call: Pot'l $2-3B and Phase III Data Early 2027

VRTX has important Phase III data in APOL1 kidney disease coming in early 2027. This is an interim readout for the oral pill inaxaplin in patients with APOL1 homozygous risk mutations, severe proteinuria and no other comorbidities - we believe this is a key potential (+) catalyst coming for the company. APOL1-mediated kidney disease (AMKD) could represent a $2-3B opportunity on the severe, primary AMKD population alone, in our view, and we believe the stock could be +/- 10-15% on the Phase III interim data - where the company would need to show a positive and stat sig result on both proteinuria and on eGFR slope. We are adjusting our PT to $615 from $585 previously. Inaxaplin would be the second potential drug to launch within VRTX's emerging nephrology franchise, and together with povetacicept (IgAN kidney disease PDUFA Nov 30) these drugs could form a new multi-billion blockbuster franchise for VRTX. We see ~65% POS for VRTX to show a (+) result on the Phase III 48-week interim analy